AAPL: Short or Long?

With all the unbelievable hoopla around the imminent release of the iPhone my thinking turns to the APPL stock price. Right now the Apple stock price at an all time high of $123.00 per share. The iPhone is coming out in one week.

What will the stock price do?

Arguments for shorting AAPL:

  • Right off the bat, my bias and superstition is that if a stock is at an all time high, then odds are better that it goes down than up.
  • You might say that "Buy on the rumor and sell on the story" doesn't exactly apply here, given that it's no rumor that the iPhone is going to come out next week. You can hardly miss it.
  • Yes, but there are rumors that will be proven right or wrong in the coming weeks:
    • Will the iPhone fly off the shelves as expected?
    • Is there enough inventory to deal with the demand?
    • Will the Cingular/AT&T network survive the onslaught?
    • Will the phone perform?
    • Will we miss a regular keyboard?

Arguments for buying APPL:

  • All indications are that the iPhone will be another watershed event that changes everything, like the iPod did in its time.
  • We have only started seeing the marketing push that the Cingular/Apple combination is going to bring to bear.
  • The iPhone will be immensely profitable for Apple, more than anticipated, which will drive up the stock price

What do you think?